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How does draft position affect the outcome of our league?  By MJ

The following is based on a 3 year study (data found on ChickenClock.com, everyone's favorite FF data site). 

Note: Regular season standings were used to compute the finish.
 

Pincrest League 3-Year Draft Analysis 
                         
    Average   2006   2005   2004  
Player   Draft Position Finish   Draft Position Finish   Draft Position Finish   Draft Position Finish  
MJ   6.00 7.33   9 10   2 3   7 9  
BJ   5.33 3.33   3 1   12 4   1 5  
Thad   4.67 4.67   1 3   10 8   3 3  
Mac   9.67 7.00   10 7   11 12   8 2  
EJ   4.33 7.67   8 5   3 7   2 11  
Kev   4.67 4.00   7 2   1 2   6 8  
Ryan   5.33 3.67   6 6   5 1   5 4  
Ricci   5.33 7.33   5 4   7 11   4 7  
Keith   8.67 7.67   12 8   4 9   10 6  
T-Bone   7.00 10.67   4 12   8 10   9 10  
Dan   9.33 5.33   11 9   6 6   11 1  
KG/Fed   7.67 9.33   2 11   9 5   12 12  

 

Summary
Draft Position Points Avg. Finish
1 10 3.33
2 25 8.33
3 11 3.67
4 28 9.33
5 9 3.00
6 20 6.67
7 22 7.33
8 17 5.67
9 25 8.33
10 21 7.00
11 22 7.33
12 24 8.00

Research notes from MJ:

For your amusement, here are 10 broad, off-the-cuff and statistically
flawed conclusions based on my exhaustive 3-year study:

1.  Your chances of fielding a playoff team are much better if your
draft position is in the top half of the group. 
2.  Surprisingly (or not), if you draft in the top 4, your chances of
flaming out horribly are seemingly equal to your chances of making the
playoffs.
3.  Drafting in the second half of the group appears to relegate you to
expectations of mediocrity. 
4.  Best draft position = 5th (yeah Thad)
5.  Worst draft position = 4th (ah Eric)
6.  You will never miss the playoffs if you pick 5th.
7.  You will never make the playoffs if you pick 4th, 6th, 9th or 10th.
8.  BJ is the strongest regular season performer in our league.
9.  T-Bone is by far the weakest.
10. Sucks to be each and every one of you this year- the trophy is
coming back home to Menlo where it belongs. 
 

A follow up analysis by Mac.

1. In general, there is no relationship between "POSITION" and "FINISH"

Here, I looked at the statistical relationship between all players’ POSITION and their FINISH.  Note the R-squared is very low – indicating there is no statistical relationship.

2. Among winners, there is no relationship between “POSITION” and “FINISH”

Here, I looked ONLY at those people who have finished – at one point in the past three years – in POSITION 1-4.

3. However, among MID-TIER PLAYERS (those whose average finish is between 4 and 6), it seems that POSITION MATTERS – leading to an R-squared value of 51%.

(Note: MID-TIER players are Thad, Kev, Ryan and Dan; TOP-TIER players are BJ; LOW-TIER players are everyone else).